Global| Oct 14 2011U.S. Import Prices Nudge Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall U.S. import prices rose 0.3% during September after a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.4%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% September drop. Year-to-year, the lower value of the U.S. dollar as well as higher oil [...]
Overall U.S. import prices rose 0.3% during September after a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.4%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% September drop. Year-to-year, the lower value of the U.S. dollar as well as higher oil prices have raised prices for imported products. The 13.4% increase since last September was nearly the strongest since mid-2008.
Petroleum prices rose 0.3% as Brent crude oil rose m/m to an average $112.89 per barrel (44.5% y/y), still down versus the high of $122.68 during April. Non-oil import prices rose 0.2% and by 5.5% y/y. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices rose 0.5% last month (+14.4% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies rose 0.2% (15.8% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods again rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) and apparel prices ticked up just 0.1% (9.1% y/y). Firming were furniture prices, up 0.4% (5.9% y/y), but home entertainment equipment prices again fell 0.3% (-6.8% y/y). Imported auto prices rose 0.1% (+3.7% y/y) while imported capital goods prices also ticked up 0.1% (1.3% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices were unchanged (-5.2% y/y). Excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% and by a strengthened 4.0% y/y. They increased just 0.5% last year and by 0.7% in 2009.
U.S. export prices rose 0.4% as agricultural prices jumped 1.6%. They were up by roughly one-quarter versus last year. That gain was accompanied by a 0.3% increase in non-agricultural goods (8.0% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies increased 0.7% and were up 18.9% y/y. Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (1.0% y/y). To the upside, nonauto consumer goods prices rose 5.1% y/y compared to a 2.1% rise last year and a 0.3% gain during all of 2009.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Did Speculation Drive Oil Prices? Futures Market Points To Fundamentals from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 13.4 | 6.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
| Petroleum | 0.3 | -1.6 | 0.3 | 45.9 | 28.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
| Agricultural | 1.6 | 2.1 | -4.0 | 22.9 | 7.9 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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