Global| Mar 16 2010U.S. Import Prices Dip With Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier gains in import prices took a breather in February. However, a further increase is likely this month with the rise in oil prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that last month import prices slipped 0.3% and roughly [...]
Earlier gains in import prices took a breather in February. However, a further increase is likely this month with the rise in oil prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that last month import prices slipped 0.3% and roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.2% decline. Excluding petroleum import prices gained 0.2% which was down sharply from the increases during the prior four months.
Petroleum prices slipped 2.2% last month following their 4.4% January increase. That moderation, however, is proving to be short-lived. Brent crude oil prices in March have strengthened to nearly $80 per barrel from $74 last month.
For non-oil imports, the price gain moderated last month to 0.2% after gains of 0.5%-to-0.6%. The lower value of the dollar has now helped lift these prices at a 5.2% annual rate during the last three months following the 4.1% decline last year. (During the last ten years, there has been a negative 81% correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non-oil import prices.)
Food & beverage prices slipped 0.1% (+5.4% y/y) while prices for nonauto consumer goods also slipped 0.1%. They were unchanged y/y. That compares with a 1.0% y/y decline this past summer. The unchanged reading reflected a 0.6% increase in durable consumer goods prices after the 0.6% 2009 dip. Auto import prices rose a steady 0.6% y/y. Home entertainment equipment prices rose 0.8% after declining steadily since 1996. In contrast, household goods prices fell 1.1% y/y which was double the rate of decline last year. Finally, apparel prices were unchanged m/m as they were for all of last year.Capital goods fell 0.1% last month (-0.7% y/y) and excluding computers prices also fell 0.1% both m/m and y/y.
Total export prices slipped 0.5% last month and reversed the January gain. The decline reflected a 3.8% drop in agricultural export prices (+2.3% y/y) and a 0.2% drop in non-agricultural goods prices (+3.3% y/y).
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | February | January | December | Feb. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | -0.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 11.2 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | -2.2 | 4.4 | -1.1 | 81.3 | -35.9 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.1 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
