Global| Feb 17 2010U.S. Import Price Gains Continue Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Higher oil prices and the lower dollar have been the primary factors behind the movement in import prices this past year. Just for January, a 1.4% rise in prices was nearly the strongest since last June and beat Consensus expectations [...]
Higher oil
prices and the lower dollar have been the primary factors behind the
movement in import prices this past year. Just for January, a 1.4% rise
in prices was nearly the strongest since last June and beat Consensus
expectations for a 1.0% gain.
Petroleum prices jumped 4.8% last month and they have roughly doubled since last January. This month, the strength in Brent crude oil prices tapered off with a decline to an average $72.91 after reaching a daily high near $80 per barrel early in January.
Conversely the lower value of the U.S. dollar has helped lift non-oil import prices. A 0.6% January increase was near the elevated gains during the prior four months. Since their low last March non-oil import prices have risen 2.4% after a 5.3% decline during the prior twelve months. (During the last ten years, there has been a negative 81% correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non-oil import prices.)
Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose for the first month in the last three but the slight y/y increase is improved from the deflation as of last Fall. Prices for durable consumer goods increased a firm 0.6% to lift the y/y increase to 0.6% from a 1.1% decline as of last fall. Capital goods also slipped m/m but the pace of price deflation has slowed.
Total export prices increased 0.8% (3.4% y/y) reflecting a 1.4% (4.5% y/y) increase in agricultural export prices and a 0.7% gain (3.3% y/y) in non-agricultural prices. These declines reversed just some of the strength through 2008
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
Is the International Role of the Dollar Changing? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | January | December | November | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 11.5 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | 4.8 | -1.4 | 5.4 | 95.5 | -36.0 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -4.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 3.4 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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