Global| Jan 17 2013U.S. Housing Starts Surge With Warm Weather & Rebound From Sandy
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts surged last month due to unseasonably warm temperatures and the recovery in the Northeast from Hurricane Sandy. Total starts jumped 12.1% (36.9% y/y), the highest level since June 2008. A rise to 879,000 was the [...]
Total housing starts surged last month due to unseasonably warm temperatures and the recovery in the Northeast from Hurricane Sandy. Total starts jumped 12.1% (36.9% y/y), the highest level since June 2008. A rise to 879,000 was the Consensus expectation. For 2012 in total, starts rose 27.5% y/y to 781,000 following single-digit gains in both 2011 and 2010. Higher starts of multi-family units led last month's rise in the total. The 20.3% m/m increase to 338,000 was to almost double the year-ago level. For the year, multi-family starts rose 38.2%. Single-family starts rose a lesser 8.1% last month (18.5% y/y) to 616,000, also the highest level since June 2008. Last year, single-family starts rose almost one-quarter to 535,000.
By region, starts in the Midwest paced last month's rise with a nearly one-quarter increase to 197,000 (10.7% y/y). The Northeast followed with a 21.4% rise to 85,000 (37.1% y/y). In the West, starts rose 18.7% to 203,000 (57.4% y/y while starts in the South gained 3.8% to 469,000 (43.0% y/y).
Building permits in December ticked up 0.3% (28.8% y/y) to 903,000. For the year, permits rose 28.1% to 800,000. Permits for single-family homes rose 1.8% last month (27.3% y/y) and for the year increased 21.7%. Multi-family permits fell 2.1% m/m but were up nearly one-third y/y. For the full year, permits to build multi-family homes rose 41.4%.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s,SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 954 | 851 | 889 | 36.9 | 781 | 612 | 586 |
| Single-Family | 616 | 570 | 589 | 18.5 | 535 | 434 | 471 |
| Multi-Family | 338 | 281 | 300 | 91.0 | 246 | 178 | 114 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 85 | 70 | 78 | 37.1 | 78 | 68 | 72 |
| Midwest | 197 | 158 | 156 | 10.7 | 129 | 103 | 97 |
| South | 469 | 452 | 438 | 43.0 | 400 | 309 | 296 |
| West | 203 | 171 | 217 | 57.4 | 173 | 132 | 120 |
| Building Permits | 903 | 900 | 868 | 28.8 | 800 | 624 | 604 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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