Global| Jul 19 2011U.S. Housing Starts Jump M/M But Trend Sideways
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New residential building activity just can't break out to the upside. Housing starts rose 14.6% last month to 629,000 (AR) following a downwardly revised no change in May. Despite the increase, however, the lift only made up for [...]
New residential building activity just can't break out to the upside. Housing starts rose 14.6% last month to 629,000 (AR) following a downwardly revised no change in May. Despite the increase, however, the lift only made up for earlier months' weakness and the level of starts remained slightly below January. The June figure exceeded Consensus expectations for 575,000 starts.
If there is strength in the numbers it's in the multi-family area. Here, starts rose 30.4% last month following two months of decline. The trend gain is more impressive. Starts have been rising since late-2009 and have more-than-doubled the recession low. Starts of 2-to-4 building units generally have moved sideways. However, starts of larger buildings with 5 or more units rose roughly one-third last month and have more-than doubled over the last twelve.
Starts of single-family units rose a firm 9.4% last month but have risen just 0.4% y/y. The lethargy of the y/y gain is evidenced by a 20% decline since last year's peak that was charged by the first-time home-buyers tax credit.
Building permits rose 2.5% (6.7% y/y). Single-family permits nudged up 0.2% (-3.8% y/y) while multi-family permits rose 6.9% (34.0% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | June | May | Apr | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 629 | 549 | 549 | 16.7 | 585 | 554 | 900 |
| Single-Family | 453 | 414 | 411 | 0.4 | 471 | 442 | 616 |
| Multi-Family | 176 | 135 | 138 | 100.0 | 114 | 112 | 284 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 77 | 57 | 60 | 28.3 | 72 | 61 | 120 |
| Midwest | 124 | 99 | 96 | 45.9 | 98 | 95 | 134 |
| South | 292 | 264 | 274 | 2.1 | 296 | 281 | 451 |
| West | 136 | 129 | 119 | 25.9 | 120 | 117 | 195 |
| Building Permits | 624 | 609 | 563 | 6.7 | 603 | 582 | 896 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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