Global| Dec 19 2017U.S. Housing Activity Improves; Single-Family Starts Rise to Ten-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts rose 3.3% (12.1% y/y) during November to 1.297 million units (SAAR) from 1.256 million in October, revised from 1.290 million. The latest level was the highest since October 2016. A level of 1.250 million starts [...]
Total housing starts rose 3.3% (12.1% y/y) during November to 1.297 million units (SAAR) from 1.256 million in October, revised from 1.290 million. The latest level was the highest since October 2016. A level of 1.250 million starts had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey.
Starts of single-family homes rose 5.3% (12.0% y/y) to 930,000, the highest level since September 2007. Multi-family starts declined 1.6% (+12.1% y/y) to 367,000, but September's level was revised lower to 373,000.
Movement in starts last month varied greatly around the country. Housing starts in the West increased 19.0% to 344,000, the highest level since December. Starts in the South gained 11.1% to 691,000, the highest level since August 2007. Elsewhere, starts declined m/m. Starts in the Northeast fell by 39.6% to the lowest level in six months. In the Midwest, starts eased 12.9% to the lowest level in three months.
Building permits declined 1.4% (+2.1% y/y) to 1.298 million after a 7.3% October rise. Single-family permits rose 1.4% (10.4% y/y) to 862,000, also a ten-year high. Permits to build multi-family homes fell 6.4% (-9.8% y/y) to 436,000, after rising 15.9%.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,297 | 1,256 | 1,159 | 12.1 | 1,177 | 1,107 | 1,001 |
| Single-Family | 930 | 883 | 832 | 12.0 | 784 | 712 | 647 |
| Multi-Family | 367 | 373 | 327 | 12.1 | 393 | 395 | 355 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 87 | 144 | 101 | 2.9 | 116 | 136 | 109 |
| Midwest | 175 | 201 | 187 | -19.0 | 185 | 150 | 159 |
| South | 691 | 622 | 543 | 17.7 | 584 | 556 | 497 |
| West | 344 | 289 | 328 | 29.1 | 292 | 265 | 236 |
| Building Permits | 1,298 | 1,316 | 1,225 | 2.1 | 1,207 | 1,178 | 1,053 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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