U.S. Home Builders Index Slips M/M And Traffic Declines

The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo dipped to 46 this month following two months at 47. Expectations were for a slight increase. Nevertheless, the index level remained up by roughly two-thirds from one year ago. The index of single-family home sales slipped to 51 but was near the highest level since 2006. The index of sales during the next six months notched up to 50 and recovered the prior month's slip. Offsetting these gains was news that the home builders' index of traffic fell to 32, its lowest level since September.

By region, the index for the Northeast jumped to 41 and more than doubled year-to-year. The latest was its highest level since February of 2007. The index for the West notched higher m/m (39.5% y/y) while the index for the Midwest was unchanged m/m (33.3% y/y). The index for the South fell moderately m/m but remained up by three-quarters y/y. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.