Global| Oct 16 2012U.S. Home Builders Index Notches Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo rose this month to 41 from 40 in September. The latest figure was the highest since June 2006. The index of single-family home sales held [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of
Home Builders/Wells Fargo rose this month to 41 from 40 in September. The
latest figure was the highest since June 2006. The index of single-family
home sales held steady at 42, also the highest since 2006 but still down
from levels near 70 in 2004. The index of sales during the next six months
held at an elevated 51. Finally, the home builders' index of traffic of
prospective buyers improved further to 35, its highest since April 2006.
By region, the index for the West was the strongest and jumped to 49. That
was followed by the South with a rise to 42, its highest in eight years.
The Northeast's index gained for the second month in the last three. To
the downside, the index for the Midwest retraced its September gain.
The index of prospective new home buyer traffic surged to 35, its highest level since April 2006. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted. The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, fell in Q2'12 and reversed six months of improvement. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Oct | Sep | Jul | Oct'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 41 | 40 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Single-Family Sales | 42 | 42 | 38 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 51 | 51 | 43 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 35 | 30 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Northeast | 34 | 31 | 23 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
| Midwest | 41 | 45 | 41 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| South | 42 | 39 | 35 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| West | 49 | 44 | 40 | 21 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
