Global| May 21 2013U.S. Gasoline Prices Improve But Crude Oil Prices Slip From High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The upcoming summer driving season is lending strength to gasoline prices. The price of regular gasoline gained another seven cents last week to $3.67 per gallon, still off a slim 1.1% versus last year. Prices remain below the $3.78 [...]
The upcoming summer driving season is lending strength to gasoline prices. The price of regular gasoline gained another seven cents last week to $3.67 per gallon, still off a slim 1.1% versus last year. Prices remain below the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for seasonal volatility and the adjusted price rose w/w to $3.43 per gallon.
Moving away from the recent high was the price for light sweet crude oil. It slipped to $94.97 per barrel (+2.0% y/y) but remained up from the recent low of $87.97. Yesterday prices recovered to $96.61. Brent crude oil prices also fell last week to $102.87 per barrel (-6.6% y/y) but recovered to $104.71 yesterday.
Natural gas prices stabilized last week and ticked up to $3.95 per mmbtu (58.9% y/y). They rose further yesterday at $4.10.
The demand for gasoline fell 3.1% y/y last week. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell 14.4% y/y while distillate demand was off 3.0% y/y. Gasoline inventories rose 6.5% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 05/20/13 | 05/13/13 | 05/06/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.54 | -1.1 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.78 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 94.97 | 96.17 | 93.72 | 2.0 | 94.20 | 95.14 | 79.51 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 3.95 | 3.89 | 4.21 | 58.9 | 2.75 | 3.99 | 4.00 |
by Tom Moeller May 21, 2013
Consumer spending growth continues to back away from the recent peak. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales ticked up just 0.2% (3.1% y/y) last week following two weeks of sharp decline. As a result, store sales so far this month are 1.9% below the April average which increased 3.8% m/m to a record high. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has declined.
General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The chain store figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYW database.
Fiscal Policy. Oy! (With Reference to Ben Bernanke, Ken Arrow, Thomas Jefferson, William Shakespeare and the Oracle of Omaha) is last week's speech by Dallas Fed President & CEO Richard W. Fisher and they can be found here http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs130516.pdf
| ICSC-Goldman Sachs (SA, 1977=100) | 05/18/13 | 05/11/13 | 05/04/13 | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 547.9 | 546.9 | 558.0 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| W/W % | 0.2 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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