U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Fall Further

Less travel helped lower retail gasoline prices to $2.25 per gallon (-11.8% y/y) in the week ended March 16 versus $2.38 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below an early-May peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver Analytics adjusts prices for seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted gasoline price fell to $2.30 per gallon.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains under pressure as the coronavirus reduces demand. It declined to $28.70 per barrel yesterday after falling to an average $32.35 (-44.0% y/y) last week. Prices have fallen from $61.75 averaged in the first week of January. The price of Brent crude oil weakened to $30.10 per barrel yesterday from an average of $34.97 last week, down from $50.04 in the prior week.

The average price of natural gas improved to $1.87/mmbtu (-35.2% y/y) last week from $1.80 in the prior week. The price rose to $1.89/mmbtu yesterday but remained below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November.

In the four weeks ending March 6, gasoline demand increased 1.7% y/y, while total petroleum product demand declined 1.1% y/y. Gasoline inventories increased 0.4% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 1.2% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries held steady y/y in the past four weeks.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

Total retail sales including food service establishments increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y) during January following a 0.2% December gain, revised from 0.3%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts also rose an expected 0.3% (4.0% y/y) last month after a 0.6% increase in December, revised from 0.7%.

Retail sales alone edged 0.1% higher (4.0% y/y) following no change last month, which was revised from 0.4%. A 3.1% decline (0.0% y/y) in apparel store sales weakened the result as it followed December's 2.7% jump. A 2.1% (-1.3% y/y) rise in building materials store sales offset most of this weakening. Motor vehicles purchases improved 0.2% (5.7% y/y) as unit sales of light vehicles (reported earlier this month) rose 1.1%. Nonstore retail sales increased 0.3% (8.4% y/y) after four straight months of decline. General merchandise store sales rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y), up for the fourth straight month. Furniture & home furnishings store sales improved 0.6% (1.8% y/y) following a 1.6% decline, but electronics & appliance store sales eased 0.5% (-3.2% y/y), and reversed December's rise. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales gained 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) following little change.

Gasoline & service station sales eased 0.5% (+10.4% y/y) as gasoline prices declined.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & grocery store sales improved 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after rising 0.5% in December. Sales of health & personal care product stores offset this gain with a 0.4% decline (-1.9% y/y), and they've been declining steadily since the middle of last year.

Restaurant sales increased 1.2% (7.4% y/y), the same as in December, which was revised from 0.2%.

The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.

Total business inventories rose an expected 0.1% (2.2% y/y) during December following an unrevised 0.2% November decline. The expected figure is from the Informa Global Markets survey. At the same time, business sales fell 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) following a 0.5% jump. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.40. It has been moving sideways since the end of 2018.

Retail inventories were little changed (1.1% y/y) in December after a 0.9% decline. Motor vehicle dealers' inventories eased 0.1% in December (-0.3% y/y), down for the third straight month. Nonauto inventories held steady (1.9% y/y) after November's 0.3% decrease. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings fell 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Clothing inventories were off 0.4% (-1.5% y/y), down for five straight months. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.6% (-0.8% y/y) while department store inventories weakened 2.4% (-7.3% y/y). Wholesale inventories edged 0.2% lower (+2.1% y/y) after two months of 0.1% rise. Factory sector inventories strengthened 0.5% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.3% increase.

Sales of retail stores (not including the food service sector) were unchanged in December (5.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in November. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales improved 0.5% (6.0% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Wholesale sector sales declined 0.7% (+0.5% y/y) and reversed November's rise. Shipments from the factory sector increased 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) following their 0.3% November rise.

The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector held steady at 1.43 in December, the lowest level since May 2015. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers eased to 1.18, down from the March 2016 high of 1.29. For merchant wholesalers, the I/S ratio was steady at 1.36 and for manufacturers, it was 1.40 for a fourth month.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.