Global| Mar 31 2011U.S. Factory Orders Slip M/M But Trend Gain Stable
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improvement in factory sector activity slowed last month. Factory orders ticked down 0.1% during February after an unrevised 3.3% January gain. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.6%, revised from the 0.9% decline reported last [...]
Improvement in factory sector activity slowed last month.
Factory orders ticked down 0.1% during February after an unrevised 3.3%
January gain. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.6%, revised from the
0.9% decline reported last week. Consensus expectations were for a 0.5%
increase in total factory orders. Despite the monthly slip in orders, y/y
growth held steady at 9.3%. The orders' decline was accompanied by a 0.3%
increase in shipments. This gain follows increases well over 1.0% in each
of the prior three months.
A slower rate of inventory building, 0.8% last month, seems to account for the reduced rate of factory sector improvement. Moreover, this squares with the slowing gains in industrial production reported earlier this month. Nevertheless, unfilled orders moved 0.5% higher in February. The 4.5% y/y gain masks, however, the strength of a 13.0% rise in backlogs less the transportation sector. It was led by a 29.3% y/y gain in backlogs of machinery orders.
The factory orders figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -0.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 9.3 | 12.1 | -17.8 | -1.0 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 9.1 | -15.6 | 2.3 |
| Inventories | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 8.3 | -8.8 | -0.8 |
| Backlogs | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | -11.1 | 2.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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