Global| Mar 05 2020U.S. Factory Orders, Shipments & Inventories Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory orders decreased 0.5% (-0.8% y/y) during January following a 1.9% December jump. This was the second monthly decline in the last three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% slip. Durable goods orders [...]
Factory orders decreased 0.5% (-0.8% y/y) during January following a 1.9% December jump. This was the second monthly decline in the last three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% slip. Durable goods orders weakened 0.2% (-4.0% y/y) following a 2.8% surge, which was strengthened by a jump in orders for nondefense aircraft. Machinery orders increased 2.1% (-1.0% y/y) but electrical machinery orders fell 1.1% (+3.2% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products eased 0.2% (+0.6% y/y). Orders for nondurable products, which equal shipments, declined 0.8% (+2.6% y/y) as petroleum refinery shipments fell 4.6% (+6.4% y/y) and reversed December's rise. Basic chemical shipments improved 0.1% (2.4% y/y) but apparel shipments declined 0.6% (-0.2% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods eased 0.2% (-3.3% y/y) as transportation shipments fell 1.4% (-0.2% y/y). Shipments outside of the transportation sector eased 0.3% (+1.5% y/y). Machinery shipments rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) while electrical equipment shipments declined 1.6% (+1.4% y/y). Transportation sector shipments fell 1.4% (-9.2% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments were off 20.8%. Shipments of computers & electronic products improved 0.3% (1.2% y/y).
Unfilled orders for manufactured products held steady (-2.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Transportation sector backlogs eased slightly, so excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.1%. Machinery backlogs slipped 0.1% (-3.7% y/y). while computer & electronic equipment order backlogs eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y). Electronic equipment & appliance backlog rose 0.6% (6.7% y/y).
Factory sector inventories declined 0.1% (+2.5% y/y). Transportation inventories rose 0.2% (11.9% y/y) as auto inventories strengthened 2.4% (14.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, inventories fell 0.2% both m/m and y/y. Electrical equipment inventories gained 0.1% (2.7% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories eased 0.2% (+1.1% y/y). Nondurable product inventories fell 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) as petroleum refinery stockpiles gained 0.3% (5.0% y/y). Apparel inventories declined 0.5% (-2.8% y/y) and food product inventories eased slightly (+1.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.5 | 1.9 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
| Shipments | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.6 | -2.3 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Inventories | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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