Global| Mar 06 2014U.S. Factory Orders Move Lower as Inventories Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) during January following a 2.0% December decline, revised from -1.5%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% slip. Last month's decline reflected an unrevised 1.0% drop (+4.6% y/y) [...]
Orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) during January following a 2.0% December decline, revised from -1.5%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% slip. Last month's decline reflected an unrevised 1.0% drop (+4.6% y/y) in durable goods orders, again led lower by aircraft bookings. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) slipped 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after a 1.0% December jump. Shipments of textile products were off 11.4% (-3.2% y/y) while shipments of apparel fell 1.0% (-0.1% y/y). Basic chemical shipments also fell 1.0% (-0.5% y/y) but paper product shipments improved 0.4% (0.1% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y). Transportation equipment inventories rose 0.9% (9.1% y/y) and primary metals inventories gained 0.2% (-2.7 y/y). Computers & electronics inventories slipped 0.5% (+3.0% y/y) while machinery inventories were off 0.3% (-0.2% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, apparel inventories slipped 0.3% (+16.4% y/y) but chemical inventories were roughly unchanged (-0.2% y/y). Petroleum inventories declined 0.4% (-3.0% y/y) while paper product inventories gained 0.3% (-0.2% y/y).
Unfilled orders were unchanged (7.1% y/y) but excluding the transportation sector, backlogs rose 0.3% (5.8% y/y). Backlogs in the machinery sector gained 1.8% (5.9% y/y) and backlogs of electrical equipment increased 0.8% (7.4% y/y). Backlogs of primary metals were off 0.8% +16.3% y/y) while unfilled orders for transportation equipment slipped 0.1% (+7.9% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.7 | -2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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