Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Aug 02 2018

U.S. Factory Orders and Shipments Strengthen

Summary

Activity in the factory sector continues to improve. Manufacturers' orders increased 0.7% (6.1% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.4% May increase. Manufacturing shipments surged 1.0% (8.4% y/y) after a 0.6% May rise. Durable [...]


Activity in the factory sector continues to improve. Manufacturers' orders increased 0.7% (6.1% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.4% May increase. Manufacturing shipments surged 1.0% (8.4% y/y) after a 0.6% May rise.

Durable goods orders improved 0.8% (3.1% y/y), revised from 1.0% in last month's advance report. The rise followed a 0.3% May decline. Orders for transportation equipment jumped 2.1% in June (-6.2% y/y) due to a 20.2% surge in defense aircraft bookings. Nondefense aircraft orders rose 4.2% while motor vehicle & parts orders rose 0.9%. Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.4% (9.1% y/y). Machinery orders were little changed (+5.6% y/y) following a 4.6% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.8% (10.4% y/y) and electrical equipment bookings gained 0.8% (8.4% y/y).

Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments because nondurables are shipped when ordered, gained 0.5% (9.4% y/y) after a 1.1% jump. Petroleum shipments increased 0.8% (39.6% y/y) with higher prices. Food product shipments slipped 0.2% (+0.9% y/y) for the second straight month. Basic chemical shipments increased 0.8% (6.3% y/y) and paper product shipments gained 0.5% (6.8% y/y). Shipments of apparel rose 1.6% (7.6% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods strengthened 1.5% (7.5% y/y) last month after a 0.2% gain. Shipments of transportation products surged 3.7% (6.7% y/y) reflecting strength in truck shipments. Shipments of civilian aircraft rose 6.0% (8.0% y/y), but automobile shipments fell 0.7% (-9.2% y/y). Shipments outside of the transportation sector increased 0.5% (8.8% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Machinery shipments improved 0.6% (7.1% y/y) after a 1.2% strengthening. Computer & electronic product shipments rose 0.1% (5.7% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance shipments fell 0.3% (+4.4% y/y) for the second straight month.

Unfilled orders of durable goods rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y), up for the fifth consecutive month. Transportation equipment backlogs gained 0.3% (2.7% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, unfilled orders rose 0.6% (5.7% y/y) following two straight 0.7% increases. Machinery backlogs improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y). Unfilled orders of computer & electronic products increased 0.6% (3.5% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance backlogs rose 1.1% (1.9% y/y) after three straight months of moderate increase.

Inventories of manufactured products ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y) after stronger monthly gains back through the middle of last year. Durable goods inventories slipped 0.1% (+4.6% y/y). Transportation product inventories declined 1.4% (+2.4% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y), the strongest increase this year. Machinery sector inventories increased an accelerated 0.4% (4.9% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.4% (3.4% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories improved 0.4% (5.9% y/y). Basic chemical inventories rose 0.8% (3.8% y/y) but food product inventories eased 0.1% (-0.1% y/y), down for the third straight month. Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.7% and by roughly one-third y/y.

All these factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2017 2016 2015
New Orders 0.7 0.4 -0.4 6.1 5.7 -2.9 -8.2
Shipments 1.0 0.6 0.1 8.4 5.0 -3.2 -6.2
Unfilled Orders 0.4 0.5 0.6 3.6 2.0 -1.2 -2.7
Inventories 0.1 0.2 0.4 5.1 4.5 -0.7 -0.8
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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