Global| Jul 03 2007U.S. Factory Inventory Gain Slowed With Negative Shipment Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories rose 0.4% during May after the moderate 0.4% gain in April. The gains left the y/y growth at 4.3%. Slower than the 6.4% rate of accumulation during all of 2006. Much of the slowdown has occurred in inventories of [...]
Factory inventories rose 0.4% during May after the moderate 0.4% gain in April. The gains left the y/y growth at 4.3%. Slower than the 6.4% rate of accumulation during all of 2006.
Much of the slowdown has occurred in inventories of computers & electronic products slowed to 4.3% y/y from a 10.4% rise in 2006. The y/y gain in electrical equipment inventories at 13.3% also is half the 25.2% rise last year.
Slower inventory growth follows the weakness in factory shipments which are down 0.4% y/y. Less the transportation sector shipments also are down 0.1% y/y.
Total factory orders do not paint a hold much promise for a robust recovery in shipments as they reversed in May all of a 0.5% gain during April.
Unfilled orders nevertheless remained strong posting y/y growth of 20.1%, about the same as last year’s strong rise.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | May | April | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
| New Orders | -0.5% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 5.1% | 11.6% | 6.9% |
| Shipments | 1.0% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 4.3% | 10.3% | 6.9% |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.9% | 1.9% | 20.1% | 20.0% | 15.0% | 3.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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