Global| Mar 05 2009U.S. Factory Inventories Fell A Fifth Month, Shipments Off 15.6% Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventory levels continued to plummet during January. The 0.8% monthly decline was the fifth in a row and lowered inventories by 4.5% from their August peak. To be sure, these figures have been influenced by the decline in oil [...]
Factory inventory levels continued to plummet during January. The 0.8% monthly decline was the fifth in a row and lowered inventories by 4.5% from their August peak. To be sure, these figures have been influenced by the decline in oil prices. However, excluding oil, factory inventories are down 1.2% from their peak, a decline not seen since 2003.
Lower inventories of automobiles have dominated the factory inventory decline. They fell 17.6% in January and by 20.0% over the last three months. Steep production cutbacks pulled furniture inventories down 5.2% over the last six months while inventories of electrical equipment are down 7.2% since September. 
Weaker factory shipments have prompted the inventory cutbacks with a 15.6% decline over the last year. Again, lower oil prices account for much of the decline but less oil, factory shipments have fallen 13.9% from their peak last July. Automobile shipments were off by more 36.1% from their summer peak while shipments of electrical equipment fell 19.8% during that period. Shipments of furniture & related products fell 16.2% since the summer.
Total factory orders dropped 1.9% during January. The capital goods sector has been notably hard hit. Machinery orders dropped 3.0% in January and by 29.1% during the last six months. Orders for electrical equipment fell 7.3% during January alone and by 19.6% since July.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (MSIO) data is available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Survey (NAICS, %) | January | December | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.8 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 8.2 |
| Excluding Transportation | -0.8 | -2.8 | -2.7 | -0.6 | 2.7 | 7.9 |
| New Orders | -1.9 | -4.9 | -19.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.2 |
| Excluding Transportation | -0.9 | -4.4 | -16.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 7.4 |
| Shipments | -1.7 | -3.3 | -15.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |
| Excluding Transportation | -1.6 | -3.9 | -14.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 6.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | -1.7 | -1.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 17.1 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Transportation | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.8 | -1.0 | 8.2 | 16.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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