Global| Feb 23 2011U.S. Existing Home Sales Jump; Prices Near 10-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For the fifth month in the last six, the National Association of Realtors reported a rise in existing home sales. Despite severe winter storms, the January gain of 2.7% to 5.560M from a revised 5.220M in December was to the highest [...]
For the fifth month in the last six, the National Association of Realtors reported a rise in existing home sales. Despite severe winter storms, the January gain of 2.7% to 5.560M from a revised 5.220M in December was to the highest level since May of last year. The last exceeded Consensus expectations for sales of 5.22M. (Figures back to 2008 were revised.) Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales of existing single-family homes alone rose 2.4% (4.9% y/y) from December to 4.690M. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series.) Sales of condos and co-ops rose 4.7% m/m (7.9% y/y).
The median price of all existing homes fell 5.9% m/m to $158,800, the largest decline of the last seven months. Prices reached the lowest level since April 2002. The price of a single-family home fell 5.8% last month to $159,400 (-2.7% y/y). Price weakness has raised home affordability to a record high, up more than two-thirds from the 2006 low. Mortgage interest rates rose to 4.69% during December. The median family income for existing home buyers was $62,423 and mortgage payments amounted to 13.5% of that total.
The number of unsold homes (single-family & co-ops) for sale fell in January to 3.380M but were up 3.1% y/y. At the current sales rate, the months' supply of homes on the market fell m/m to 7.6, near the cycle low and well off the record high of 12.5. For single-family homes, the inventory also fell m/m to a 7.5 months' supply.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,360 | 5,220 | 4,640 | 5.3 | 4,918 | 5,149 | 4,894 |
| Northeast | 830 | 870 | 770 | -1.2 | 825 | 863 | 848 |
| Midwest | 1,140 | 1,120 | 980 | 3.6 | 1,076 | 1,168 | 1,128 |
| South | 2,020 | 1,950 | 1,790 | 8.0 | 1,861 | 1,907 | 1,857 |
| West | 1,370 | 1,270 | 1,120 | 7.0 | 1,155 | 1,214 | 1,062 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,690 | 4,580 | 4,080 | 4.9 | 4,311 | 4,559 | 4,337 |
| Median Price, Total, ($, NSA) | 158,800 | 168,800 | 170,200 | -3.7 | 172,458 | 172,742 | 197,233 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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