Global| Jul 22 2010U.S. Existing Home Sales Are Down Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing homes continued to suffer with the expiration of a Federal home-buyer tax credit. Existing home sales fell 5.1% to 5.370M last month after a smaller 2.2% May decline, according to the National Association of [...]
Sales of existing homes continued to suffer with the expiration of a Federal home-buyer tax credit. Existing home sales fell 5.1% to 5.370M last month after a smaller 2.2% May decline, according to the National Association of Realtors. Nevertheless, June sales were better than Consensus expectations for sales of 5.10M. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops. Sales of existing single-family homes alone fell 5.6% from May to 4.70M. (These data have a longer history than the total sales series). Sales of condos and co-ops rose 32.6% from last year.
The median price of all existing homes rose in June to $182,700 from a downwardly revised May level. Though prices remained off roughly 25% from the 2007 peak they have risen 11.6% from the February low. The price of a single-family home rose 2.6% to $180,100 (-1.4% y/y). Earlier price weakness sharply raised home affordability -- by three-quarters from the 2006 low. The recent rise in home prices lowered homes' affordability by 7.0% versus one year ago. The median family income for existing home buyers was $60,498 and mortgage payments amounted to 15.4% of that total.
The number of unsold homes (single-family & co-ops) for sale ticked up m/m and remained up 4.7% y/y. At the current sales rate there was an 8.9 months' supply of homes on the market. That was down from a high of 10.1 months during April of 2008. For single-family homes, the inventory rose m/m to a 8.7 months' supply, the highest since June of last year.
Using Stock Market Liquidity to Forecast recessions from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here here.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data is available in the REALTOR database
| Existing Home Sales (Thous, SAAR) | June | May | April | June Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,370 | 5,660 | 5,790 | 9.8% | 5,160 | 4,893 | 5,674 |
| Northeast | 960 | 890 | 1,090 | 17.1 | 863 | 845 | 1,010 |
| Midwest | 1,230 | 1,330 | 1,330 | 11.8 | 1,166 | 1,130 | 1,331 |
| South | 2,010 | 2,150 | 2,140 | 11.0 | 1,913 | 1,860 | 2,243 |
| West | 1,170 | 1,290 | 1,230 | 0.9 | 1,216 | 1,064 | 1,095 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,700 | 4,980 | 5,060 | 8.5 | 4,573 | 4,341 | 4,960 |
| Median Price, Total, $ (NSA) | 183,700 | 174,600 | 172,300 | 1.0 | 172,742 | 197,233 | 216,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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