Global| Nov 13 2013U.S. Energy Prices Are Under Pressure
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Filling up at the gas pump has become less of a traumatic event. The price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell 8 cents last week to $3.19 (-7.4% y/y), the lowest level since February 2011. They're down from the $3.78 per gallon peak [...]
Filling up at the gas pump has become less of a traumatic event. The price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell 8 cents last week to $3.19 (-7.4% y/y), the lowest level since February 2011. They're down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Much of the decline reflects less driving this time of year. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for this seasonal volatility. The adjusted price of $3.36 per gallon remained below the February peak of $3.94.
Also continuing downward have been light sweet crude oil prices. The per barrel cost of WTI crude fell to $94.32 (12.9% y/y) last week, down from $108.77 two months ago. Yesterday, prices continued lower to $93.04. Brent crude oil prices also fell last week to $104.67 per barrel (-3.9% y/y) and they remained down from the February high of $118.09. Yesterday, prices ticked higher to $105.64 per barrel.
Natural gas prices also have been under pressure. They declined last week to $3.46 per mmbtu (+2.1% y/y). Yesterday, prices moved higher to $3.69 but remained down from the April peak of $4.26.
The demand for all petroleum products rose 3.0% y/y. Gasoline demand gained 5.4% y/y last week. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell by 29.8% y/y but distillate demand gained 8.2% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased 1.1% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 11/11/13 | 11/04/13 | 10/28/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.19 | 3.27 | 3.29 | -7.4 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.78 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 94.32 | 96.95 | 97.66 | 9.7 | 94.20 | 95.14 | 79.51 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA) | 3.46 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 2.1 | 2.75 | 3.99 | 4.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
