Global| Oct 31 2014U.S. Employment Cost Index Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The employment cost index for private industry workers jumped 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in Q3'14, following an unrevised 0.8% Q2 rise. These increases were the largest since Q4'07 and surpassed expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Action [...]
The employment cost index for private industry workers jumped 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in Q3'14, following an unrevised 0.8% Q2 rise. These increases were the largest since Q4'07 and surpassed expectations for a 0.5% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Wages & salaries of private industry workers increased 0.7% (2.2% y/y) last quarter after a 0.8% Q2 rise. These gains were the largest since early 2008. The 1.2% increase (2.5% y/y) in retail trade wages paced the gain followed by a 0.9% increase (2.3% y/y) in professional & business services wages. Leisure & hospitality wages gained 0.8% (2.0% y/y) while education services wages improved 0.7% (1.6% y/y). Financial activities wages increased 0.5% (1.9% y/y) and factory sector wages gained 0.3% (2.1% y/y). Information industry wages ticked 0.1% higher (1.2% y/y).
Benefit costs gained 0.6% (2.4% y/y) after a 1.1% Q2 jump. Manufacturing benefits increased 0.9% (2.5% y/y) while management & professional benefits improved 0.7% (2.4% y/y). Production & transportation benefits similarly gained 0.7% (2.1% y/y) while service industry benefits rose 0.7% as well (0.7% y/y). Natural resource, construction & maintenance worker benefits increased 0.5% (3.3% y/y) and sales & office workers benefits rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y).
Total compensation for state & local government workers rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y) for the third straight quarter. That reflected a 0.6% rise (1.5% y/y) for health care & social assistance employees and a 0.5% gain (1.9% y/y) in education & health services. Public administration total compensation improved 0.4% (2.4% y/y).
The employment cost index figures are available in Haver's USECON database. Consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ECI- Private Industry Workers (%) | Q3'14 | Q2'14 | Q1'14 | Q3 Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compensation | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Benefit Costs | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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