Global| Oct 30 2015U.S. Employment Cost Index Bounces Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The employment cost index for private industry workers improved 0.6% in Q3'15 (1.9% y/y), following an unrevised zero change during Q2. The number matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index for the [...]
The employment cost index for private industry workers improved 0.6% in Q3'15 (1.9% y/y), following an unrevised zero change during Q2. The number matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index for the professional & business services sector posted a 1.0% gain (1.7% y/y) but that followed a 1.2% decline. Trade, transportation & utility workers realized 1.0% growth (2.3% y/y) which built on a 0.6% rise. Information sector compensation rose 0.7% (-1.5% y/y), but that didn't make up the 3.6% Q2 decline. Factory sector compensation improved a lesser 0.4% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.7% increase. Education & health services workers realized 0.3% growth (1.9% y/y) after a 0.4% increase. In the public sector, state & local government workers compensation rose 0.6% (2.3% y/y), the same as in Q2.
Wages in private industry rose 0.7% (2.1% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. Workers in professional & business services realized 1.2% wage growth (2.0% y/y) and that followed a 1.3% decrease. Trade, transportation & utility wages grew 1.1% (2.2% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Information sector wages rose 0.6% (2.4% y/y) for the fourth consecutive quarter. Wages in leisure & hospitality declined 0.3% (+1.6% y/y) following 0.7% rise. Factory sector wages grew a fairly steady 0.6% (2.5% y/y) but construction wages advanced a lessened 0.6% (2.4% y/y). Wages for state & local government workers improved 0.3% (1.8% y/y) after a 0.6% gain.
Benefits of private industry workers grew 0.5% (1.3% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Sales & office workers realized 0.6% growth (1.4% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Workers in service occupations saw only a 0.5% increase (1.8% y/y) and management & professional workers saw 0.3% growth (1.0% y/y). Factory sector workers realized only a 0.1% uptick (1.9% y/y) in benefits but that followed several quarters of strength. State & local government workers realized a 0.7% increase (3.0% y/y), on a par with growth this decade.
The employment cost index figures are available in Haver's USECON database. Consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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