Global| Jul 25 2003U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders surged 2.1% in June, double the Consensus expectation for a 1.0% rise. May figures were revised up slightly. A 20.0% m/m jump in orders for commercial aircraft & parts accounted for the upside surprise in orders. [...]
Durable goods orders surged 2.1% in June, double the Consensus expectation for a 1.0% rise. May figures were revised up slightly.
A 20.0% m/m jump in orders for commercial aircraft & parts accounted for the upside surprise in orders. That gain lifted all transportation sector orders by 3.9%. Excluding the transportation sector, durable orders rose 1.4% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.9% gain in May.
Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 2.0% on the gain in aircraft orders. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense capital goods orders rose 0.6% (8.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.5% May gain.
For a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis titled "Waiting for the Investment Boom? It Might Be a While" click here.
During the last nine years there has been an 85% correlation between the y/y change in nondefense capital goods orders and the change in nonresidential investment in equipment & software. There has been a 96% correlation between the change in shipments of these capital goods and investment.
Shipments of durable goods rose 1.3% (-0.8% y/y). Durable goods shipments were up 1.3% YTD.
Durable inventories dropped 0.6% (-1.7% y/y), the largest one month decline since March 2002. Lower inventories in the transportation sector accounted for much of the drop.
| NAICS Classification | June | May | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 2.1% | 0.0% | 4.4% | -0.1% | -11.4% | 3.3% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 2.0% | 0.2% | 12.3% | -5.3% | -16.5% | 7.9% |
by Tom Moeller July 25, 2003
Sales of new single family homes in June continued the recent surge and added 4.7% m/m to the 10.9% May gain which was revised down slightly. June sales were at a record 1.160M unit rate versus Consensus expectations for 1.100M.
Sales gains were spread across the country's regions in June but were strongest in the Northeast where sales rose 32.3% (24.6% y/y). In the Midwest sales rose 9.8% (20.3% y/y).
Elsewhere, sales in the South rose 0.9% (21.8% y/y) and in the West sales rose 2.7% (19.2% y/y).
The median price of a new home fell to $187,000 (-1.9% y/y) and the prior month's figure was revised up.
The new home sales data reflect current sales versus the existing home sale figures which reflect closings on past sales.
| Homes Sales (000s, AR) | June | May | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Single-Family | 1,160 | 1,108 | 21.0% | 977 | 907 | 880 |
by Tom Moeller July 25, 2003
Sales of existing single family homes fell short of Consensus expectations for 6.00M. Sales in June were 5.830M, down 0.3% from May. Figures back to 1989 were revised slightly due to new seasonal factors.
Lower sales in the Northeast and in the Midwest were partially offset by a gain in the West and stability in the South.
The median price of an existing home rose to $176,500 (+7.7% y/y).
The figures reflect closings of past home sales.
| Existing Home Sales (000, AR) | June | May | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Single-Family | 5,830 | 5,850 | 8.6% | 5,595 | 5,292 | 5,158 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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