Global| Mar 26 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound With Aircraft Bookings
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods can be quite volatile depending on what's happening in the transportation sector, which accounts for roughly one-third of the total. Total durable goods orders recovered 2.2% (0.2% y/y) last month [...]
New orders for durable goods can be quite volatile depending on what's happening in the transportation sector, which accounts for roughly one-third of the total. Total durable goods orders recovered 2.2% (0.2% y/y) last month following a 1.3% January decline, revised from a 1.0% drop. The improvement lagged expectations for a 0.8% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
New orders for transportation equipment led last month's recovery with a 6.9% jump (-2.5% y/y), that reversed January's shortfall. It reflected a 13.6% gain (-18.3% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders, after a 22.1% drop. Motor vehicle & parts bookings improved 3.6% (3.6% y/y) which followed a 1.9% decline.
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders continued to show a mixed performance with a total 0.2% uptick (1.5% y/y) after a 0.9% rise. To the upside last month, primary metals orders gained 1.8% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.7% fall, while fabricated metal orders improved 0.3% (-3.7 y/y) following an 8.3% jump. Orders for computers & electronic products increased 0.4% (1.5% y/y) after a 3.2% gain. Working lower were machinery orders by 1.5% (+3.9% y/y), after a 1.3% drop. Electrical equipment, appliance & component orders were off 0.9% (-1.3% y/y) following a 3.8% decline. Nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.8% (-7.2% y/y), the fourth month of sharp decline in the last five. Orders excluding aircraft were off 1.3% (+2.2% y/y) and reversed January's gain.
Shipments of durable goods increased 0.9% (3.4% y/y) in February following January's 0.6% fall. Shipments excluding the transportation sector gained 0.7% (2.8% y/y) and reversed January's decline. Unfilled orders improved 0.3% (6.4% y/y) after being unchanged, while order backlogs outside of the transportation sector were stable (5.3% y/y). Inventories of durable goods improved 0.8% (4.1% y/y) after January's 0.3% rise. Inventories outside the transportation sector increased 0.5% (2.0% y/y) after being roughly unchanged in the prior month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 2.2 | -1.3 | -5.3 | 0.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | 6.9 | -6.2 | -12.1 | -2.5 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.2 | 0.9 | -1.8 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.8 | -5.3 | -6.3 | -7.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.3 | 0.8 | -1.6 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 0.9 | -0.6 | -1.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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