Global| Sep 27 2019U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase While Core Capital Goods Decline
Summary
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in August (-3.0% year-on-year) following a 2.0% increase in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% decline. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 0.4% [...]
Manufacturers' orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in August (-3.0% year-on-year) following a 2.0% increase in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% decline. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 0.4% (-8.5% y/y) after jumping 7.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft, which is a forward-looking indicator of capital spending, were down 0.2% (-0.3% y/y), following an unchanged reading. In the second quarter GDP report inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment declined at a 1.0% annual rate (+2.6% y/y).
A 0.8% decline in motor vehicle and a 5.6% drop in aircraft orders (+3.3% and -37.7% y/y respectively) were more than offset by 0.6% and 1.3% gains in machinery and fabricated metals (-1.3% and +2.5% y/y respectively).
Shipments of durable goods edged up 0.1% in August (0.3% y/y) after falling 1.2%. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments rose 0.5% (0.9% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft increased 0.4% (1.7% y/y).
Unfilled orders for durable goods including and excluding transportation both edged up 0.1% (-0.9% and +0.8% y/y respectively). Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.2% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories ticked down 0.1% (+2.4% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -3.0 | 7.9 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | -0.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | -8.5 | 9.8 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.1 | 5.2 | 5.0 | -8.4 | 5.5 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | -2.3 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | -3.0 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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