Global| Oct 26 2011U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall With Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell an expected 0.8% last month following an unrevised 0.1% slip during August. A sharp 7.5% decline in orders in the transportation sector accounted for all of the decline. Orders for aircraft & parts [...]
New orders for durable goods fell an expected 0.8% last month following an unrevised 0.1% slip during August. A sharp 7.5% decline in orders in the transportation sector accounted for all of the decline. Orders for aircraft & parts fell by more-than-one-quarter (-27.5% y/y) and reversed the August jump. In addition, orders for motor vehicles & parts fell 2.7% (+3.2% y/y).
Outside the transportation sector, orders rose 1.7% (8.1% y/y). That gain was led by a 2.6% (30.8% y/y) rise in primary metals and a 1.9% increase (9.4% y/y) in fabricated metals. Electrical machinery orders followed with a 1.9% rise (3.9% y/y) which added to strength in August. Machinery orders rose 1.8% (10.7% y/y). Computers & other electronics orders increased 1.0% (-7.5% y/y) but computer orders alone jumped another 6.0% (4.7% y/y). Orders for communications equipment slipped 0.6% and were off by one-quarter y/y. The sub-total of orders for nondefense capital goods fell 2.3%, reflecting the drop in aircraft bookings, but elsewhere orders rose 2.4%.
Shipments of durable goods fell 0.7% (+7.3% y/y) last month. Less the transportation sector, shipments slipped 0.1% (+9.3% y/y) dragged down by a 1.5% drop (+12.8% y/y) in machinery. Inventory accumulation in the durables sector eased off last month with a 0.1% (12.1% y/y) increase. Unfilled orders again were strong, posting a second consecutive 0.8% (7.6% y/y) rise. That was led by a 1.3% gain (31.4% y/y) in machinery.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders | -0.8 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 15.4 | -27.3 | -6.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 28.0 | -31.0 | -8.4 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 2.4 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 8.6 | 17.2 | -20.4 | -1.2 |
| Shipments | -0.7 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 6.2 | -20.4 | -2.8 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 9.9 | -9.0 | -0.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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