Global| Mar 19 2014U.S. Current Account Deficit Shrinks to its Least Since 1999
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. current account deficit decreased in Q4'13 to $81.1 billion from $96.4 billion in Q3. It was the smallest quarterly deficit since Q3 1999. It represented 1.9% of GDP, the least since Q3 1997. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
The U.S. current account deficit decreased in Q4'13 to $81.1 billion from $96.4 billion in Q3. It was the smallest quarterly deficit since Q3 1999. It represented 1.9% of GDP, the least since Q3 1997. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a deficit of $88.2 billion. For all of last year, the deficit shrank to $379.3, its least since 1999. Exports of goods, services and income grew 2.5% in Q4 (4.2% y/y), while imports edged up 0.7% (1.3% y/y). For the full year, exports of goods, services & income gained 2.5% after a 3.9% rise in 2012. Imports ticked up 0.3% last year after a 3.1% increase in 2012.
Last quarter's deficit on merchandise trade shrank to $171.8 billion, its least in three years. Goods exports rose 1.9% (3.8% y/y) last quarter, the strongest rise since Q3'11. Imports of goods increased marginally in Q4, up 0.8% y/y. The year's deficit of $703.9 billion was the smallest since the recession year of 2009.
The trade surplus on services improved to $57.9 billion. Services exports increased 1.7% (4.5% y/y). Travel exports gained 2.1% (10.3% y/y) and passenger fares improved 2.8% (6.7% y/y). Imports of services rose 1.6% (4.1% y/y), as travel imports were up 2.7% (7.1% y/y). The $229.0 billion surplus on services trade last year set another record.
The surplus on income improved to a record $64.4 billion as receipts from abroad grew 4.7% y/y and payments to foreigners increased 1.3%. For the year, the surplus improved to a near-record $228.8 billion.
From the capital account, the deficit on private direct investment abroad improved during the year to $166.3 billion, its least since 2010.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| US Balance of Payments SA | Q4'13 | Q3'13 | Q1'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -81.1 | -96.4 | -96.8 | -379.3 | -440.4 | -457.7 |
| Deficit % of GDP | -1.9% | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.7% | -3.0% |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -171.8 | -178.4 | -175.0 | -703.9 | -741.5 | -744.1 |
| Exports | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 16.1% |
| Imports | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 2.8% | 15.5% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 57.9 | 56.9 | 57.5 | 229.0 | 206.8 | 187.3 |
| Exports | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 11.0% |
| Imports | 2.4% | -0.7% | -0.9% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Balance on Income ($ Billion) | 64.4 | 59.1 | 55.2 | 228.8 | 223.9 | 232.6 |
| Unilateral Transfers ($ Billion) | -31.6 | -34.0 | -34.5 | -133.2 | -129.7 | -133.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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