Global| Nov 15 2007U.S. CPI Rise of 0.3% As-expected, 0.2% Core Also In Line
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.3% last month and matched the prior month's swift increase. Rising to 3.5%, the y/y rise also was the quickest in just over one year. Core consumer price inflation held stable at an [...]
The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.3% last month and matched the prior month's swift increase. Rising to 3.5%, the y/y rise also was the quickest in just over one year.
Core consumer price inflation held stable at an expected 0.2% for the sixth month in the last seven. The y/y increase of 2.1% also was stable although the change over the last three months dipped to 2.1% (AR) from 2.5% where it has been since July.
Core goods prices dipped just slightly for the third straight month as apparel prices showed no change (-1.2% y/y). New & used motor vehicle prices also fell for the second straight month (-1.1% y/y) and prices of household furnishings & operation fell for the sixth month in the last seven (-0.9% y/y).Tobacco prices provided lift to the core goods price measure with a 0.2% (7.6% y/y) rise.
Core services prices rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) but the gains have been decelerating since June, mostly because of slower gains in shelter prices. They rose 0.1% (3.3% y/y) but the three month change fell to 2.4%, half the rate of increase a year ago. The owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y). Over the last three months, however, most of the deceleration in shelter prices has been due to prices for lodging away from home. Public transportation prices rose an accelerated 1.2% (2.6% y/y) while medical care services prices also rose an accelerated 0.6% (5.9% y/y). Education service prices rose 0.8% (5.3% y/y) but communication prices fell slightly (-0.4% y/y).
Food & beverage prices again increased 0.3% (4.4% y/y). That y/y increase is double the rate of last December. Prices for fruits & vegetable rose 0.7% (0.8% y/y) but prices for meats, poultry & fish rose 0.2% (5.6% y/y). Prices of dairy products rose a diminished 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after four straight months of double digit gain.
What's Really Happening in Housing Markets from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Oct | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
| Services less Energy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Energy | 1.4% | 0.3% | -3.2% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 10.8% |
| Food & Beverages | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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