Global| Mar 25 2011U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slumps
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers are reeling from the rise in oil prices. The March reading of consumer sentiment, from the University of Michigan, declined 12.9% to 67.5 from 77.5 in February. It was the lowest figure since October. A reading of 68.0 had [...]
Consumers are reeling from the rise in oil prices. The March reading of consumer
sentiment, from the University of Michigan, declined 12.9% to 67.5 from 77.5 in February.
It was the lowest figure since October. A reading of 68.0 had been
expected. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation
between the level of sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer
spending.
The expectations component of consumer sentiment fell the sharpest with a 19.1% m/m decline to 57.9, the lowest level in exactly two years. The reading of current economic conditions fell a lesser 5.1% to 82.5 (+0.1% y/y).
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with just over 300 households during early-to-mid November. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database with details in the proprietary UMSCA database. The expectations figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 67.5 | 77.5 | 74.2 | -8.3% | 71.8 | 66.3 | 63.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 82.5 | 86.9 | 81.8 | 0.1 | 81.0 | 69.6 | 73.7 |
| Expectations | 57.9 | 71.6 | 69.3 | -14.7 | 65.9 | 64.1 | 57.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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