Global| Apr 28 2006U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slipped in Late April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment slipped late this month. The final reading from the University of Michigan's stood a 87.4 versus a preliminary indication of 89.2 posted two weeks ago. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 89.0. [...]
Consumer sentiment slipped late this month. The final reading from the University of Michigan's stood a 87.4 versus a preliminary indication of 89.2 posted two weeks ago. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 89.0.
Expectations for the economy worsened and for price inflation, moved up. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The current conditions ended up about unchanged index for the month versus a preliminary indication of moderate m/m 1.8% improvement. The index of personal finances rose slightly (5.3% y/y) after a sharp gain during March but the reading of buying conditions for large household goods was unchanged (4.4% y/y). Consumers' assessment of gov't economic policy fell hard late in the month and was unchanged for the whole period versus March (-4.5% y/y).
The index of consumer expectations fell 3.4% m/m and that was much worse than the preliminary indication of a 1.2% slip. The near term economic outlook took a powder late in the month and fell 10.4% y/y and the long term outlook reversed much of the prior month's improvement (-8.8% y/y).
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months jumped to 4.4% from an expected 3.8% last month due the rise in gasoline prices.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | April | March | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 87.4 | 88.9 | -0.3% | 88.6 | 95.2 | 87.6 |
| Current Conditions | 109.2 | 109.1 | 4.6% | 105.9 | 105.6 | 97.2 |
| Expectations | 73.4 | 76.0 | -4.7% | 77.4 | 88.5 | 81.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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