Global| Mar 18 2014U.S. Consumer Price Inflation is Minimal; Food Prices Jump but Energy Prices Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer prices edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) during February following a like January rise. The increase matched consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food and energy also gained [...]
Consumer prices edged 0.1% higher (1.1% y/y) during February following a like January rise. The increase matched consensus expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Consumer prices excluding food and energy also gained 0.1%, for the third consecutive month and the sixth time in the last seven months. The rise matched consensus expectations.
Food price inflation heated up last month. The 0.4% price increase (1.4% y/y) was the largest gain since September 2011. Egg prices jumped 2.2% (5.7% y/y) while meat prices surged 1.7% (3.6% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices strengthened 1.1% (-0.4% y/y) and dairy product prices increased 0.7% (0.6 y/y). Working the other way, cereal & bakery product prices declined 0.4% (+0.5% y/y), poultry prices fell 0.3% (+2.5% y/y) and nonalcoholic beverage prices also were off 0.3% (-1.8% y/y).
Offsetting food price strength was a 0.5% decline (-2.5% y/y) in energy prices. Gasoline prices fell 1.7% (-8.1% y/y) and electricity prices slipped 0.2% (+3.8% y/y). Moving upward were fuel oil prices by 4.1% (2.9% y/y) and natural gas costs by 3.6% (8.3% y/y).
Consumer prices for goods less food and energy edged 0.1% lower (-0.4% y/y). Furniture & bedding prices fell 1.1% (-3.0% y/y) and apparel costs declined 0.3% (-0.6% y/y). Appliance prices edged down 0.2% (-3.5% y/y) but new car & truck prices ticked 0.1% higher (0.3% y/y). Recreation goods prices were unchanged (-2.1% y/y) though educational books & supplies prices increased 0.9% (3.2% y/y). Also strong were medical care commodity prices, up 0.6% (1.7% y/y).
Core services prices increased another 0.2% (2.2% y/y). Public transportation prices strengthened 0.5% (-1.8% y/y) and tuition cost also rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y). Shelter costs (32% of the CPI) gained 0.2% (2.6% y/y) as owners equivalent rent of primary residences rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Medical care services prices also rose 0.2% (2.5% y/y) for a third straight month. Recreation service prices ticked up 0.1% (1.7% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Food | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 3.7 |
| Energy | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 15.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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