Global| Oct 28 2014U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps With Youthful Exuberance
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence surged to 94.5 this month (30.5% y/y) from 89.0 in September, revised from 86.0. The latest figure was the highest since October 2007 and easily surpassed [...]
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence surged to 94.5 this month (30.5% y/y) from 89.0 in September, revised from 86.0. The latest figure was the highest since October 2007 and easily surpassed expectations for 87.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
By age group, confidence surged for those under age 35 years old to the highest level since December 2006. For those aged 55 and older confidence also recovered to the highest since January 2008. To the downside, confidence amongst individuals aged 35-54 fell to the lowest level since June.
The overall expectations reading surged 10.0% (31.6% y/y) to 95.0 from 86.4, revised from 83.7. The present situation figure edged 0.8% higher (29.1% y/y) to 93.7 from 93.0, initially reported as 89.4.
Business conditions were rated as good by a new high of 24.5% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lessened 29.1% of respondents, the expansion low. A depressed 16.8% thought there would be more jobs in six months and an improved 19.6% thought business conditions would be better in six months. A lessened 49.1% of respondents were going to buy a major appliance but just 3.8% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months, the least since April. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months ticked up to 5.4%.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 94.5 | 89.0 | 93.4 | 30.5 | 73.2 | 67.1 | 58.1 |
| Present Situation | 93.7 | 93.0 | 93.9 | 29.1 | 67.6 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
| Expectations | 95.0 | 86.4 | 93.1 | 31.6 | 77.0 | 78.6 | 72.8 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 123.1 | 105.7 | 110.4 | 47.1 | 93.1 | 86.5 | 77.3 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 96.5 | 99.4 | 100.5 | 17.7 | 76.8 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 80.9 | 73.2 | 80.7 | 39.7 | 61.2 | 56.7 | 47.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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