Global| Mar 29 2011U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers know full-well the implications of the recent jump in petroleum prices; and they aren't good. The Conference Board reported that its March index of consumer confidence fell 11.9% to 63.4 and retraced the 11.1% February rise, [...]
Consumers know full-well the implications of the recent jump in petroleum prices; and they aren't good. The Conference Board reported that its March index of consumer confidence fell 11.9% to 63.4 and retraced the 11.1% February rise, which was upwardly revised from 8.6%. The latest figure was lower than Consensus expectations for a reading of 65.4. During the last ten years there has been a 77% correlation between the level of confidence and the 12-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
The expectations component led this month's drop with a 16.8% decline to the lowest level since November. Expectations for business conditions in six months deteriorated while far fewer expected more jobs. Consumers expected the inflation rate in twelve months to be an increased 6.7%. Interest rates in twelve months were expected to be higher by an increased 55.8% of respondents. Just 13.6% expected rates to fall. A lessened 30.4% of respondents expected stock prices to rise, the lowest since October.
The present situations component of the consumer confidence index rose to its highest level since November 2008. Business Conditions were seen as good by an improved 15.1% of respondents. Jobs were seen as hard to get by a stable 44.6%, the least since June.
The Conference Board data can be found in Haver's CBDB database. The expectation figure is the AS1REPNA database.
Recent College Graduates and the Labor Market from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 63.4 | 72.0 | 64.8 | 21.2 | 54.5 | 45.2 | 57.9 |
| Present Situation | 36.9 | 33.8 | 31.1 | 46.4 | 25.7 | 24.0 | 69.9 |
| Expectations | 81.1 | 95.5 | 87.3 | 15 .2 | 73.7 | 59.3 | 50.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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