Global| Aug 26 2014U.S. Consumer Confidence Continues To Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence improved 2.3% this month to 92.4 (13.0% y/y) from 90.3 in July, revised from 90.9. The latest figure beat expectations for 88.8 in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence improved 2.3% this month to 92.4 (13.0% y/y) from 90.3 in July, revised from 90.9. The latest figure beat expectations for 88.8 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The present situation figure led overall confidence higher with a 7.6% m/m rise (33.4% y/y) to 94.6 from a revised 87.9, initially reported as 88.3. That was accompanied by a 1.1% m/m decline (+2.1% y/y) in the expectations reading to 90.9 from 91.9, revised from 92.7.
Business conditions were rated as good by an improved 23.9% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 30.6% of respondents, the expansion low. A lessened 17.0% thought there would be more jobs in six months and a steady 20.4% thought business conditions would be better in six months. To the downside, a greatly lessened 45.7% of respondents were going to buy a major appliance but an easier 4.7% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months ticked up to 5.5%.
By age group, confidence improved greatly amongst individuals under 35 years old to its highest level since September 2013. For those aged 35-54 years old, confidence slipped while confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over gained to its highest level since October 2007.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 92.4 | 90.3 | 86.4 | 13.0 | 73.2 | 67.1 | 58.1 |
| Present Situation | 94.6 | 87.9 | 86.3 | 33.4 | 67.6 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
| Expectations | 90.9 | 91.9 | 86.4 | 2.1 | 77.0 | 78.6 | 72.8 |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 108.6 | 104.8 | 105.5 | 3.9 | 93.1 | 86.5 | 77.3 |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 96.4 | 98.8 | 91.2 | 7.1 | 76.8 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
| Over 55 Years | 81.5 | 75.9 | 73.5 | 25.6 | 61.2 | 56.7 | 47.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
