Global| May 19 2009U.S. Chain Store Sales Reverse Earlier Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, store sales stuttered last week and reversed all of the gains early in the month. In fact weekly sales fell to their lowest since late-March. For the [...]
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, store sales stuttered last week and reversed all of the gains early in the month. In fact weekly sales fell to their lowest since late-March. For the month so far, chain store sales are down just slightly from April after that month's 1.4% rise from the March average.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales. These weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Not only did sales decline, but the leading indicator of sales fell as well and reversed earlier increases. Nevertheless, the y/y change remained less depressed at -2.4% versus the 6.0% rate of decline last Fall.
Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 05/16/09 | 05/09/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 486.8 | 492.7 | -0.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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