Global| Mar 24 2009U.S. Chain Store Sales Lose Earlier Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
February chain store sales may belatedly have benefited as Christmas gift cards were cashed in. Now, however the effects of higher unemployment seem to have taken hold. Store sales fell in three of the last four weeks and the decline [...]
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales. These weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
The outlook for sales, moreover, remains cautious. Though the weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs rose 0.1% last week (-4.3% y/y) after the prior week's 0.3% gain, those increases made up little of February's 2.3% flop.
The latest Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 03/21/09 | 03/14/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 481.3 | 483.4 | -1.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
