Global| Sep 27 2011U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Remains Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index remained unchanged during July for the third straight month, June was revised up from a 0.1% slip reported earlier. Despite their recent stability, prices during the last [...]
The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index remained unchanged during July for the third straight month, June was revised up from a 0.1% slip reported earlier. Despite their recent stability, prices during the last twelve months have fallen 4.2% after rising modestly y/y twelve months ago. That left the latest index level down by roughly one-third since the 2006 peak and equal to the lowest since March, 2003. Not seasonally adjusted prices rose 0.9% during July. The latest y/y decline of 4.2% was less than the 4.6% Consensus expectation, according to Bloomberg. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices slipped 0.1% during July (-3.8% y/y) after two unchanged monthly readings.
Price declines continued throughout the U.S. During the last twelve months, declines were most notable in Minneapolis (-9.2%), Phoenix (-8.9%), Portland (-8.5%), Chicago (-6.8%), Seattle (-6.5%) and Tampa (-6.3%). Figures for Detroit, which previously showed decline y/y, were revised up sharply and now show a y/y increase. More moderate price declines were logged in San Francisco (-5.6%), Miami (-4.6%), New York (-3.8%), Los Angeles (-3.5%), Denver (-2.2%) and Boston (-2.0%). Prices rose 0.2% in Washington D.C.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA,%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -4.2 | 1.3 | -13.3 | -15.7 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -5.0 | -2.4 | -11.6 | -8.5 |
| Boston | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -2.0 | 1.9 | -4.9 | -5.7 |
| Chicago | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -6.8 | -3.7 | -14.2 | -10.0 |
| Charlotte | -0.4 | 0.8 | -0.3 | -3.9 | -3.4 | -8.2 | -1.9 |
| Cleveland | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -5.5 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -7.3 |
| Dallas | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -3.3 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -3.2 |
| Denver | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 0.9 | -2.8 | -4.9 |
| Detroit | 1.7 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -3.4 | -21.3 | -17.9 |
| Las Vegas | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -5.3 | -7.7 | -29.8 | -28.1 |
| Los Angeles | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -3.5 | 5.3 | -15.4 | -24.2 |
| Miami | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -4.6 | -2.1 | -22.0 | -26.5 |
| Minneapolis | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -9.2 | 3.2 | -15.7 | -14.3 |
| New York | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -3.8 | -1.6 | -9.8 | -7.4 |
| Phoenix | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -8.9 | -0.3 | -28.0 | -27.5 |
| Portland | -0.0 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -8.5 | -3.2 | -12.8 | -6.6 |
| San Diego | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -6.0 | 7.3 | -13.3 | -23.3 |
| San Francisco | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -5.6 | 9.3 | -18.4 | -24.3 |
| Seattle | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -6.5 | -3.6 | -14.3 | -7.3 |
| Tampa | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -6.3 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 |
| Washington, D.C. | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 4.7 | -10.8 | -15.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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