Global| Nov 30 2010U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls For Third Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
What strength in home prices there might have been evaporated this summer. During September, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.8% after a 0.5% August drop that was deeper than reported initially. It [...]
What strength in home prices there might have been evaporated this summer. During September, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.8% after a 0.5% August drop that was deeper than reported initially. It was the third consecutive month of decline and the index level was roughly unchanged versus last November. A 12-month rise of 0.5% compares to Consensus expectations for a 1.0% gain. For 3Q as a whole prices fell at a 2.3% annual rate from 2Q after four consecutive quarters of increase. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices declined 0.7% during September, down for the third month. The y/y gain of 1.5% was down from its 5.5% peak.
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During September, the 12-month gain in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 5.4% y/y, in San Diego by 4.9% and in Los Angeles by 4.3%. These gains follow earlier sharp declines. Elsewhere there was moderate strength. Prices rose 4.4% in Washington D.C. following sharp declines from 2007 to 2009. Prices fell 1.3% in Minneapolis and 2.0% in Phoenix where prices are down more than one-half from the 2006 peak. In Tampa (-4.4%), Charlotte (-3.7%) and Las Vegas (-3.5%) prices remained severely depressed. In Tampa they're off 43.8% from the 2006 peak.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
Mortgage Borrowers Deleverage from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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