Global| Oct 26 2010U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Home price gains lost forward momentum this summer. During August, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.3%. It was the second month of decline and pulled the y/y gain down to 1.7% from 4.7% this past [...]
Home price gains lost forward momentum this summer. During August, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.3%. It was the second month of decline and pulled the y/y gain down to 1.7% from 4.7% this past May. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.2% y/y rise. For the narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index, August prices declined 0.2% which pulled the y/y gain to 2.5% from its peak of 5.5%. Not seasonally adjusted August prices fell 0.2%, the first decline following four months of increase.
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During August, the 12-month gain in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 7.7% y/y, in San Diego by 6.9% and in Los Angeles by 5.3%. Elsewhere there was moderate strength. Prices rose 4.8% in Washington D.C., 2.8% in Minneapolis, 1.5% in Boston and 0.4% in Phoenix. In Dallas (-1.7%), Denver (-1.2%), and Cleveland (-0.5%) prices fell from last year. In Las Vegas (-4.4%), Tampa (-4.2%) and Charlotte (-3.4%) prices remained severely depressed.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) | August | July | June | Aug. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2% | 1.7% | -13.3% | -15.7% | -3.8% |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -0.7 | -1.0 | 0.6 | -2.0 | -11.6 | -8.5 | 0.7 |
| Boston | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.5 | -4.9 | -5.7 | -4.0 |
| Chicago | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.2 | -3.1 | -14.2 | -10.0 | -1.0 |
| Charlotte | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -3.4 | -8.2 | -1.9 | 5.7 |
| Dallas | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -2.3 | -3.3 | 0.5 |
| Denver | -1.1 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -2.8 | -4.9 | -1.7 |
| Los Angeles | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 5.3 | -15.4 | -24.2 | -5.2 |
| Miami | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -1.0 | -22.0 | -26.6 | -5.9 |
| Minneapolis | -0.7 | -1.8 | 1.0 | 2.8 | -15.7 | -14.3 | -3.7 |
| New York | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -9.8 | -7.4 | -2.8 |
| San Francisco | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 7.7 | -18.4 | -24.3 | -4.5 |
| Tampa | -0.4 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -4.2 | -18.8 | -19.2 | -7.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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