Global| May 13 2014U.S. Business Inventory Increase Led by Wholesale
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in March (4.7% y/y) after a 0.5% February rise. The latest gain was accompanied by a 1.0% jump (4.3% y/y) in business sales after February's like rise. As a result, the inventory-to-sales [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in March (4.7% y/y) after a 0.5% February rise. The latest gain was accompanied by a 1.0% jump (4.3% y/y) in business sales after February's like rise. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.30, nearly the highest level since 2009.
Merchant wholesale inventories jumped 1.1% (5.9% y/y). That left the I/S ratio at 1.18, up off its low but below the highs of 2012. Factory sector inventories tempered that strength with a 0.1% uptick (2.6% y/y) and the I/S ratio remained stable at 1.30.
In the retail sector, inventories remained unchanged (6.1% y/y) in March. Retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y). Clothing inventories ticked 0.1% higher (2.4% y/y) as general merchandise stockpiles gained 0.2% (4.0% y/y). Building materials inventories gained 0.4% (3.3% y/y) as did food & beverage store inventories (3.6% y/y). Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 1.4% (+1.3% y/y) and motor vehicle inventories were off 0.2% (+10.8% y/y). The I/S ratio in the retail sector declined to 1.42, its lowest level since November. The nonauto I/S ratio slipped to 1.23, up off the 1.20 low early in 2012.
Business sales were strong again, posting a 1.0% rise (4.3% y/y). Merchant wholesale sales gained 1.4% (6.5% y/y). Retail sales rose a strengthened 1.5% (4.0% y/y) and excluding autos sales gained 0.9% (2.3% y/y). Shipments from the factory sector edged 0.3% higher (2.6% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| Retail | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | 1.0 | 0.9 | -1.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 10.9 |
| Retail | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 7.1 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.4 | 0.9 | -1.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 12.4 |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Retail | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Manufacturing | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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