Global| Jun 12 2008U.S. Business Inventories Rose, Recent Trend Growth Slower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.5% after a little-revised 0.2% gain during March. The April rise was greater than expectations for a 0.3% increase. Annualized, three-month growth in inventories backed off further to 4.7% from [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.5% after a little-revised 0.2% gain during March. The April rise was greater than expectations for a 0.3% increase. Annualized, three-month growth in inventories backed off further to 4.7% from the elevated 8.2% growth rate in February.
Retail inventories rose 0.4% following two month of decline. The three-month growth rate remained negative at -1.2%. Inventories of motor vehicle & parts fell at a 4.2% annual rate during the last three months due to further production cutbacks. Outside of autos, retail inventories rose 0.2% after a 1.1% drop during March and they are essentially unchanged during the last three months.
The industry detail in the retail sector indicated that furniture inventories fell at an annual rate of 1.2% during the last three months. Clothing & accessory store inventories fell hard at a 4.9% rate while general merchandise stores' inventories dropped at a 2.6% rate.
Factory inventories fell just slightly in April and three-month growth fell to 6.2% (AR) which was half the growth earlier this year. Despite the rise in oil prices, petroleum inventories fell at a 2.6% rate over the last three months after spiking earlier this year. Elsewhere, factory inventory accumulation has been fairly steady in 2008 at a 6.9% rate.
Wholesale inventories have risen at a 10.2% rate during the last three months, juiced by the rise in oil prices. Less petroleum, inventories still have been firm, however, rising at a 9.8% rate which was twice the rate of increase during all of last year.
Total business sales surged again, by 1.4% led by a 2.2% surge in factory shipments. Three-month growth held steady at a 6.2% annual rate.
The inventory-to-sales ratio for all business fell to 1.25 in April from 1.27 during 1Q and from 1.27 during the prior three years.
Protecting Consumers in the Credit Marketplace is yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall S. Kroszner and it can be found here.
| Business Inventories | April | March | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.5% | 0.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
| Retail | 0.4% | -0.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| Retail excl. Auto | 0.7% | -0.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
| Wholesale | 1.3% | 0.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| Manufacturing | -0.0% | 0.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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