Global| May 10 2006U.S. Budget Surplus Doubled in April
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. federal government ran a budget surplus in April of $118.9B that was more than double the surplus during the same month last year. The surplus improved the FY06 to-date budget deficit to $184.1B versus a deficit of $236.9B [...]
The U.S. federal government ran a budget surplus in April of $118.9B that was more than double the surplus during the same month last year. The surplus improved the FY06 to-date budget deficit to $184.1B versus a deficit of $236.9B during the first seven months of FY05.
A quirky 21.5% m/m drop in U.S. net outlays helped minimize the government's red ink. As a result of the drop the y/y growth in FYTD outlays fell to 5.7% from 8.7% one month earlier. Lower spending during April was logged by most outlay categories. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) reversed all of the prior month's surge and fell 21.6% (-10.9% y/y) and for the first seven months of FY06 rose 5.7% from '05.
Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) also reversed the March jump and fell by about half m/m. Still the FYTD growth in Medicare spending was strong at 7.9%, helped by the initiation of prescription drug coverage. Spending on social security (21% of total outlays) remained strong at 5.7%.
Net revenues nearly doubled m/m during April and that lifted growth to 11.2% during the first seven months of this fiscal year versus FY05. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) rose 13.8% from last April and that pulled FYTD growth to 9.9%. Corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) similarly were strong and rose 28.0% y/y and rose 29.9% during fiscal year 06's first seven months.
The improved job market raised employment taxes (36% of total receipts) 7.4% y/y and estate & gift taxes surged by 13.1% y/y.
Presidential Approval Ratings: How Low Can Bush Go? from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) can be found here.
Also from AEI is Taking Stock of Congress: A Lot of Bad to Go Around and it is available here.
| US Government Finance | April | Mar | Y/Y | FY 2005 | FY 2004 | FY 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $118.9B | $-85.5B | $57.7B (4/05) | $-318.3B | $-412.7B | $-377.6B |
| Net Revenues | $315.1B | $164.6B | 13.5% | 14.5% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
| Net Outlays | $196.2B | $250.0B | -10.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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