Global| Oct 16 2014U.S. Budget Deficit's Decline Continues
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government posted a $483.4 billion budget deficit during all of FY 2014. It was the smallest deficit since 2008. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion then rise to [...]
The Federal Government posted a $483.4 billion budget deficit during all of
FY 2014. It was the smallest deficit since 2008. For FY 2015, the Congressional
Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion then rise to
$556 billion in FY 2016.
Net revenues for FY 2014 increased 8.9% y/y with the firmer economy. Corporate income taxes increased 17.3% y/y while the improved labor market raised social insurance taxes by 8.0% y/y. Individual income taxes continued to rise an improving 5.9% y/y and excise taxes gained 11.1%.
The smaller budget deficit in FY'14 also reflects a reduced 1.4% y/y increase in net outlays. Outlay growth was held back by a 4.7% y/y reduction in defense spending and a 4.3% y/y decline in income security outlays. To the upside, spending growth was boosted this year by an accelerated 14.2% y/y jump in health outlays, which include health services, research & training, and an 7.7% y/y rise in veterans benefits. Also increasing were social security outlays which gained a stable 4.6% y/y while Medicare spending increased 2.8% y/y. Reflecting the recent rise in interest rates, net interest payments rose 3.0% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
| US Government Finance | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.3 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| % of Total | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 |
| National Defense | 18 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Health | 10 | 14.2 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| Medicare | 14 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| Income Security | 16 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 | -20.6 |
| Interest | 6 | 3.0 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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