Global| Apr 05 2017U.S. ADP Private Payroll Increase Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment rose 263,000 (1.9% y/y) during March, the strongest increase since December 2014. The rise followed a 245,000 February gain, revised from [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payroll employment rose 263,000 (1.9% y/y) during March, the strongest increase since December 2014. The rise followed a 245,000 February gain, revised from 298,000 and a 249,000 increase during January, revised from 261,000. Expectations had been for a 190,000 March rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 118,000 (1.6% y/y), the strongest rise since June. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 100,000 (1.8% y/y), the firmest increase since January 2016. Large-sized businesses posted a reduced 45,000 increase in jobs (2.5% y/y).
Service-producing payrolls increased 181,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 145,000 rise, which was revised down from 181,000. Leisure & hospitality employment gained 55,000 (2.0% y/y), the strongest increase in twelve months. Professional & business payrolls rose 57,000 (3.0% y/y), the firmest gain since November. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose an improved 34,000 (1.2% y/y). Financial sector payrolls jumped 25,000 (2.1% y/y), the strongest increase since December 2005. Employment in education & health services rose a weakened 13,000 (2.4% y/y).
Goods-producing employment strengthened 82,000 (1.6% y/y). Construction industry employment jumped 49,000 (3.5% y/y) while hiring in the factory sector improved 30,000 (0.7% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 263 | 245 | 249 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 118 | 87 | 74 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 100 | 95 | 96 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 45 | 63 | 79 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 82 | 100 | 62 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Construction | 49 | 59 | 35 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Manufacturing | 30 | 33 | 24 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Service-Producing | 181 | 145 | 187 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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