Global| May 03 2017U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gain Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 during April following a 255,000 March rise, revised from 263,000. A 185,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 during April following a 255,000 March rise, revised from 263,000. A 185,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 61,000 (1.5% y/y), roughly half the increase during March. Hiring by medium-sized businesses rose 78,000 (2.0% y/y), the weakest increase in six months. Large-sized businesses posted a 38,000 increase in jobs (2.5% y/y), less than half the rise registered in January.
Service-producing payrolls increased 165,000 (2.0% y/y) after a 176,000 rise. Professional & business payrolls rose 72,000 (3.2% y/y), the strongest increase in three years. Education & health care jobs gained 41,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 14,000 increase. Leisure & hospitality employment improved 35,000 (2.1% y/y) following a strengthened 50,000 increase in March. Jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 5,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 25,000 rise. Financial sector payrolls rose 2,000 (1.9% y/y) following a strengthened 25,000 increase. Jobs in the information industry inched 1,000 higher (-0.4% y/y) following a 7,000 decline.
Goods-producing employment improved 12,000 (1.6% y/y) following a 79,000 jump. Construction industry employment declined 2,000 (+3.2% y/y) after a 44,00 increase while hiring in the factory sector improved 11,000 (0.8% y/y) after a 31,000 rise.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 177 | 255 | 249 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 61 | 117 | 91 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 78 | 96 | 94 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 38 | 42 | 63 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 12 | 79 | 102 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Construction | -2 | 44 | 61 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Manufacturing | 11 | 31 | 32 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Service-Producing | 165 | 176 | 147 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
