Global| Nov 03 2009Selected Car Registrations In Europe
Summary
The auto sector is giving Europe a boost as incentive programs are still helping to stimulate sales. Only Italy and Spain have reported registrations for October but despite poor growth in both regions auto sales are growing in [...]
The auto sector is giving Europe a boost as incentive programs are still helping to stimulate sales. Only Italy and Spain have reported registrations for October but despite poor growth in both regions auto sales are growing in strongly. Spain’s sales are up by 1.7% m/m in October and up at a 99% annual rate over three months even as unemployment has hit a 10Year high there. Italy backed off in October after a strong September.
Troubles in the financial sector have banks as less than wiling lenders. Tough economic times have put consumers on the sidelines. But government programs to stimulate demand with outright subsidies linked to the scrappage of old poor-mileage vehicles has been a way to stimulate demand and to vest theses programs with some sense of a public purpose.
EMU Italy and Spain all saw sales crater at about the same time. Despite different auto incentive programs in different countries we see that Spain and Italy, two of the more challenged EMU economies, with auto sectors that are very much in sync with the rest of Europe. Evidence is that the recession in EMU is ending.
The EU Commission today issued a new outlook for the Zone and confirmed that it sees recovery taking hold. It sees a contraction of 4.1% for the EU area this year followed by growth of 0.7% in 2010 and of 1.6% in 2011 and roughly similar growth metrics for the Zone. This outlook is a hike in its forecast from its previous stance than growth in 2010 would contract by 0.1% in EMU.
| E zone Car Registrations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mo/Mo % | 3Mo Trend From | 6Mo Trend From | 12Mo Trend From | ||||||
| All Seas Adj | Oct 09 | Sep 09 | Aug 09 | Oct 09 | Sep 09 | Oct 09 | Sep 09 | Oct 09 | Sep 09 |
| Italy | -1.6% | 19.3% | -13.6% | 5.8% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 44.9% | 14.5% | 6.2% |
| Spain | 1.7% | 28.8% | -9.3% | 99.0% | 158.6% | 117.0% | 181.5% | 25.8% | 17.7% |
| base Month of Calc | Sep-09 | Aug-09 | Jul-09 | Jul-09 | Jun-09 | Apr-09 | Mar-09 | Oct-08 | Sep-08 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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