Global| Jul 12 2002Retail Sales Recover in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales rose more than expected last month due to broadly based gains. May sales were revised down slightly due to a lowered estimate of auto sales. Sales excluding autos rose versus expectations for a 0.5% gain. Sales [...]
Total retail sales rose more than expected last month due to broadly based gains. May sales were revised down slightly due to a lowered estimate of auto sales. Sales excluding autos rose versus expectations for a 0.5% gain.
Sales gains were widespread. Sales of motor vehicles rose 3.4% (-2.5% YTD). Apparel sales rose 2.0% (1.1% YTD). General merchandise sales were up 1.1% (2.9% YTD) and furniture & home furnishings sales rose 0.4% (1.1% YTD).
Sales at food stores fell and sales of building materials rose a weak 0.1%.
Unit sales in June of domestic and imported light vehicles rose 5.2% to 16.48M (SAAR).
| June | May | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.1% | -1.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.4% | -0.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% |
by Tom Moeller July 12, 2002
The mid-July reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan fell versus Consensus expectations for little change versus June.
Indexes fell for both expectations (down sharply) and current conditions.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 39% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month change in real PCE.
| Univ. of Michigan | Mid-July | June | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 86.5 | 92.4 | -6.4% | 89.2 | 107.6 | 105.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
