Global| Jun 02 2004Rebound in German Retail Sales
Summary
Retail sales in Germany surged 2.8% in April, seasonally adjusted in current prices, according to data published today by the Deutsche Bundesbank. This increase halted a five-month string of declines that totaled 5.3%. These sales [...]
Retail sales in Germany surged 2.8% in April, seasonally adjusted in current prices, according to data published today by the Deutsche Bundesbank. This increase halted a five-month string of declines that totaled 5.3%. These sales have never really recovered from the last recession and have been in generally declining trend since the beginning of 2002, so a rebound from the recent weakness is encouraging.
As seen in the table below, clothing stores were a strong source of the total sales gain in April. Motor vehicle sales are not yet available for the month, but the subtotal excluding autos rose only 1.2%, implying a large increase in the auto component. That would mark a notable turn from their recent sharp declines, which had pulled German vehicle sales to their lowest levels since early 1998.
While these latest data are encouraging, they are also given to fairly wide monthly swings. So it remains to be seen if the April gains will endure, particularly in the face of higher energy costs.
| Seasonally Adjusted | Apr 2004 | Mar 2004 | Feb 2004 | Year Ago | Annual Average|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |||||
| Retail Sales incl Autos(2000=100) | 99.8 | 97.1 | 98.2 | 101.6 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 102.0 |
| % Change | +2.8 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -1.8 | December/December | ||
| -0.7 | -1.4 | +1.4 | |||||
| Sales ex Autos % Change |
+1.2 | +0.4 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -0.1 | -2.0 | +0.1 |
| Clothing, Footwear, Leather Goods % Change |
+6.5 | -0.5 | +1.0 | +1.9 | -8.6 | -4.7 | -3.4 |
| Motor Vehicles % Change |
N.A. | -6.2 | -1.7 | -8.8 | -2.8 | +1.0 | +7.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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