Global| Mar 19 2010Orders Drop In Italy And France Upward Trend Is Mixed
Summary
The year over year charts show that momentum is still in-place for Italy and for France despite a set-back in January. Both Italy and France have seen orders drop in January. For France the January drop was severe but it still did not [...]
The year over year charts show that momentum is still in-place for Italy and for France despite a set-back in January. Both Italy and France have seen orders drop in January. For France the January drop was severe but it still did not overwhelm the gain from December. Italy’s order drop is across both domestic and foreign orders; it also comes on the heels of strong gains in those same orders in December but the drop does not exceed the past month’s gains, the same as the case for France.
Despite accelerating sequential growth rates from Both Italy’s and France’s orders, with 3-mo gains far in excess of six month gains, and ahead of Yr/Yr, however, both Italian and French orders are losing momentum.
If short term orders continue to rise, the Yr/Yr momentum drop will fade away, but it’s all a question of strength and consistency issues for orders growth that we cannot yet know with any degree of certainty. For now the drop in orders in France and Italy raise some questions about e-Zone growth. Germany has a contrary trend with orders rising strongly by 4.7% in January after a smaller drop in December. The e-zone remains a zone of intrigue when it comes to growth and momentum.
| Italy Orders | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar exept m/m | Jan-10 | Dec-09 | Nov-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
| Total | -2.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 20.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| Foreign | -2.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 42.4% | 3.6% | 10.8% |
| Domestic | -3.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Memo | ||||||
| Sales | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 30.4% | 14.9% | 4.8% |
| French Orders | ||||||
| Saar exept m/m | Jan-10 | Dec-09 | Nov-09 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo |
| Total | -10.8% | 15.7% | 0.5% | 15.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Foreign | -11.2% | 19.9% | 0.7% | 32.2% | 13.9% | 11.3% |
| IP xConstruct | 0.8% | -0.9% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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