Global| Jan 03 2014New York State Expected Business Conditions and Prices Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management reported that expectations for business conditions in New York State improved last month to the highest level since January 2011. The diffusion index level rose to 73.2 from 69.6 in November and [...]
The Institute for Supply Management reported that expectations for business conditions in New York State improved last month to the highest level since January 2011. The diffusion index level rose to 73.2 from 69.6 in November and made up declines to 59.1 in September. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity.)
The reading of current economic conditions slackened to 63.8 from 69.5, but that remained up from the June low of 47.0. For all of last year the reading of current business conditions in New York rose to 58.4, its highest level since 2010. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP. The prices paid index gained to 60.0, the highest level in nine months.
The ISM figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| ISM New York (Diffusion Index) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'12 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) | 73.2 | 69.6 | 63.6 | 69.0 | 65.0 | 64.9 | 66.2 |
| Current Economic Conditions (SA) | 63.8 | 69.5 | 59.3 | 57.7 | 58.4 | 55.2 | 56.9 |
| Prices Paid (NSA) | 60.0 | 59.5 | 56.1 | 54.8 | 55.3 | 56.4 | 58.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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