Global| Jun 23 2020New Home Sales Rebound During May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• New single-family home sales rose last month following three consecutive months of decline. • Sales improved in most parts of the country. • Prices increase modestly m/m. Sales of new single-family homes increased 16.6% during May [...]
• New single-family home sales rose last month following three consecutive months of decline.
• Sales improved in most parts of the country.
• Prices increase modestly m/m.
Sales of new single-family homes increased 16.6% during May (12.7% y/y) to 676,000 (SAAR) after falling 5.2% in April to 580,000, revised from 623,000. Sales during March plummeted to 14.5% to 612,000, revised from 619,000. May sales were 12.7% below the expansion peak of 774,000 reached in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 634,000 during May.
Sales in the Northeast rose 45.5% both m/m and y/y to 32,000. In the South, sales increased 15.2% to 402,000 (6.3% y/y) and in the West sales improved 29.0% to 169,000 (31.0% y//y). Sales were down, however, by one-third versus the January peak. Running counter to these gains, Midwest sales fell 6.4% (+2.8% y/y) and were 24.7% below the January peak.
The median price of a new home increased to 4.9% to $317,900 in May (1.7% y/y) while the average price of a new home improved 4.7% (-2.7% y/y) to $368,800. Home prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, have been range-bound for the past few years.
The months' supply of homes on the market declined to 5.6 in May from an elevated 6.7 months in April. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market was 3.8, the longest since April 2018 and up from 2.7 months in October 2018.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database, while MBA loan applications can be found in SURVEYW. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 676 | 580 | 612 | 12.7 | 685 | 614 | 616 |
| Northeast | 32 | 22 | 23 | 45.5 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| Midwest | 73 | 78 | 77 | 2.8 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
| South | 402 | 349 | 365 | 6.3 | 400 | 347 | 341 |
| West | 169 | 131 | 147 | 31.0 | 183 | 160 | 164 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 317,900 | 303,000 | 331,800 | 1.7 | 319,267 | 323,125 | 321,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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